Israel Votes as Rightward Shift Defines 2026 Election

More than 74,000 people were killed in Gaza during the conflict that began with the Hamas-led attack of October 7, 2023. That toll hangs over Tuesday's election, the first national vote held in Israel since that date. The contest is described by observers as a critical test for the country's political direction and its relationship with the international community.

Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel's longest-serving prime minister, is running for re-election. He leads the governing coalition that brought together far-right ultranationalist parties and ultra-Orthodox Jewish groups. His main challenger is a self-styled Zionist opposition bloc that has also embraced a right-wing approach to Israel's security and social challenges. The campaign focused on accountability for security failures, the military service of ultra-Orthodox citizens, and the exclusion of Arab-led parties from potential governing coalitions.

Netanyahu faces legal pressures on two fronts. He is wanted by the International Criminal Court on war crimes charges related to operations in Gaza. Domestically, he is under trial for bribery, fraud, and breach of trust, charges he denies. These legal battles have become central to his political survival, as he seeks to extend his tenure despite the opposition's claims that his leadership has eroded democratic norms.

Analysts argue that the shift to the right predates the current government. The collapse of the peace process and repeated security crises over the past few decades eroded the political center and left. This drift was formalized in 2018 with the Nation-State Law, which enshrined Jewish supremacy and allowed for the expansion of settlements in the occupied West Bank. However, the speed of this shift has accelerated under the latest Netanyahu government, which faced accusations of reshaping the state in its own image.

The governing coalition has pushed for a judicial overhaul to strip the Supreme Court of its power to review government actions. It has also flouted court rulings on the conscription of the ultra-Orthodox minority. Far-right National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich have provided support for these moves. In exchange for their seats in the coalition, both ministers helped sustain Netanyahu's political base while deflecting calls for accountability regarding the security failures preceding the 2023 attack.

Ahron Bregman, a senior teaching fellow at King's College London, noted that the election is as much about atmosphere as policy. "If Netanyahu loses the election and, say, [Gadi] Eisenkot becomes the new prime minister, the main initial change will be the atmosphere," Bregman said. He described Netanyahu as a deeply divisive figure who is revered by some and hated by others. A new prime minister would likely calm the domestic political temperature, even if core policies remain similar.

Yossi Mekelberg, a senior fellow at Chatham House, framed the vote as a choice between a functioning democracy and one in name only. He pointed to the government's suggestions regarding the "voluntary migration" of Palestinians from the West Bank as a sign of the stakes. The election determines whether Israel maintains the occupation or moves toward full annexation, a question that has become increasingly urgent for regional observers.

Despite the high stakes, the ballot does not offer a direct referendum on the treatment of Palestinians. No mainstream candidate has proposed including Arab-led parties, such as Ra'am or the Joint List, in a governing coalition. In fact, references to these leaders are often used by rival candidates to attack each other. The ultra-Orthodox parties, however, are expected to remain in government under either outcome, according to sociologist Yehouda Shenhav-Shahrabani.

Daniel Levy, a former Israeli government adviser, said the omission of the genocide in Gaza from the campaign platform is deliberate. "You would have to have one side arguing it was a good thing and the other arguing it was a bad thing," Levy said. He noted that the difference between parties is not between democratic and anti-democratic forces, but rather about the role of the state versus settler militias in managing the occupation. The election reflects a consensus among Zionist parties on the fundamental approach to Palestinian citizens and territories.

The vote takes place against a backdrop of continued violence. Deadly attacks in Gaza have persisted despite a yearlong ceasefire, while settler violence and army raids have intensified in the West Bank. The outcome will determine the next phase of Israel's domestic politics and its standing in the wider region, with markets and allies watching closely for signals on stability and judicial independence.