Arab Neighbors Expect Israel's New Government to Maintain Current Foreign Policy

Regional diplomats and political analysts expect Israel’s foreign policy to remain largely unchanged regardless of which bloc forms the next government. The lack of a clear winner in the recent Israeli election has left neighboring Arab countries watching coalition talks with cautious optimism, but few anticipate a dramatic pivot in security or diplomatic stances.

The political landscape in Israel has shifted following an election that resulted in a fragmented parliament. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is currently attempting to assemble a governing coalition. His main rival, Gadi Eisenkot, emerged as a frontrunner in initial exit polls, though that lead is increasingly contested. The outcome will determine whether Netanyahu continues his current course or if an opposition-led government takes office.

Egyptian politician Mostafa Bakry described the two leaders as two sides of the same coin on the platform X. Beth Oppenheim of the European Council on Foreign Relations noted that an Eisenkot government would likely be politically fragile. She argued that while domestic policies might shift, specifically regarding judicial reforms and the investigation into October 7, foreign policy would remain consistent across major parties.

The consensus among mainstream Jewish Israeli parties supports the current security doctrine established after October 7. This approach involves pre-empting threats, operating far beyond national borders, and maintaining buffer zones in neighboring territories. Consequently, relations with Syria, Lebanon, Jordan, Egypt, and Gulf states are expected to hold steady. The prospect of a Palestinian state remains a distant goal, with analysts stating that a two-state solution is effectively dead.

However, a less hardline government could introduce subtle changes. Israel’s Arab-led parties are believed to have secured around 19 seats, potentially making their backing essential for a new coalition. Mairav Zonszein of the International Crisis Group suggested that such a government might slow the acceleration of Israeli military activity seen over the past four years. This could include toning down religious messaging, showing flexibility on Hamas disarmament, and better containing settler violence in the West Bank.

Saudi Arabia has tightened its requirements for normalization since the 2023 Hamas attack, which has killed at least 70,000 Palestinians. Riyadh insists on progress toward Palestinian statehood before moving forward. Last week, Saudi Arabia co-signed a joint statement with Pakistan, Turkey, and Egypt describing Israel as the fundamental source of instability in the region. Analysts note that quiet cooperation exists, but a softer Israeli government would make it easier for Gulf and regional states to formalize these ties.

In Syria, the think tank Etana counted 1,996 Israeli ground operations in the southwest between January and September of this year. Ksenia Svetlova of Chatham House stated that a withdrawal was unlikely before the vote, as it would have been viewed as a defeat. However, a security agreement may become more probable under an anti-Netanyahu bloc, though the process will take time. US-mediated talks have stalled after Israel refused to retreat to the lines defined by the 1974 disengagement agreement.

Lebanese commentators believe Beirut would prefer an Eisenkot-led government during negotiations on the Israeli withdrawal from the south and Hezbollah disarmament. Although Eisenkot is credited with the Dahiyeh Doctrine, many in Lebanon view him as more manageable than Netanyahu. A Lebanese official recalled that when Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid led the government between 2021 and 2022, Lebanon successfully concluded a maritime agreement.