30% Undecided: Likud Prepares Ground Game Against Nonprofit Turnout Push

Nearly one-third of Israeli voters remained undecided as of a survey published days before the October 27 election, a figure that has created a sharp divide within Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud party. While some officials project victory, others worry that a coordinated push to increase turnout among opponents will shift the results on Tuesday.

The uncertainty stems from the party's internal polling, led by Shlomo Filber. A Likud source described the internal sentiment as polarized, noting that some members are confident while others are anxious. The source summarized the stakes of Filber's data with the assessment: "Either Momo comes out a king, or Momo goes home. It's one or the other."

Party officials point to a series of nonprofit organizations as a primary threat. These groups are directing large sums of money toward mobilizing voters in the rival camp. The campaign has operated throughout the election period without direct funding from political parties. Activities reported by sources include social media drives, physical signage, field events, and transportation services for Arab voters. The groups have also attempted to bring Israelis living abroad home to cast ballots.

One Likud official characterized the spending as "the nonprofits affair on steroids." The argument is that these organizations provide a support network to anti-Netanyahu parties that operates outside standard party financing rules. Sources did not provide documentation for the specific funding amounts or legal basis for the claim that the activity was irregular.

Likud has also criticized the Central Elections Committee. The party claims the committee focused on enforcing limits regarding campaign videos and public resources while paying insufficient attention to the work of these outside organizations.

For Election Day, Likud is organizing a large ground operation to prevent right-wing votes from drifting to smaller slates. The party attempted to persuade Brig.-Gen. (res.) Ofer Winter to leave the race but failed. Winter, a former commander of the Givati Brigade, leads the People of Israel party. Negotiations involving Rabbi Eli Sadan did not result in Winter's withdrawal, and Sadan later issued a statement supporting him.

Likud is also courting backers of other right-wing lists, including the joint ticket of Yoaz Hendel and Yaron Zelekha. The Ahi party, led by Rabbi Abergel, has already withdrawn from the race following talks with Likud. Those discussions included the possibility of legislation allowing the party to name a deputy minister.