Exit Polls Show Arab Blocs Securing 18 Knesset Seats Amid 77.7% Turnout

Exit polls from Tuesday's general election indicate that Arab-led parties are on track to win a record 18 seats in the 120-member Knesset. This outcome follows a surge in voter participation among Palestinian citizens of Israel, which reached its highest level in decades.

The Central Elections Committee reported that overall turnout hit 77.7 percent, the highest figure since 1999. Channel 12 reported that participation specifically among Palestinian citizens was approximately 80 percent. This group constitutes about 21 percent of Israel's 10 million residents and has historically voted at lower rates than Jewish Israelis.

The high turnout has created a tight race at the top. Updated exit poll data shows the opposition bloc led by Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar party tied at 51 seats with the bloc led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud. Eisenkot, a former military chief of staff, and Netanyahu are now locked in a 51-51 deadlock, leaving both sides short of the 61 seats required to form a government.

Mansour Abbas, leader of Ra'am, said he hopes the final results will allow the anti-Netanyahu bloc to reach the necessary majority. "With the numbers we have now, there is no government," Abbas told Channel 12. Ra'am currently holds five seats and was part of the governing coalition from 2021 to 2022. Abbas noted that both major blocs approached his party before and after the vote.

Alon Pinkas, a former Israeli ambassador, observed that Eisenkot's camp faces a strategic dilemma. His party pledged during the campaign not to form a coalition with Arab parties. "There's a price to pay," Pinkas said, noting that Arab lists will likely make demands that Jewish-led coalitions may resist.

Netanyahu's team attempted to rally supporters on Tuesday by highlighting the high Arab turnout. Likud officials drove through Jerusalem with loudspeakers playing the Islamic call to prayer and urged voters to act because "Arabs are voting." Arab politicians criticized the tactic as inflammatory. Netanyahu shared images of long lines in Arab communities on social media, warning that without action, Israel could face a government led by Mansour Abbas and Ahmad Tibi.

Nour Odeh, reporting from Ramallah, described the vote as an existential moment for Palestinian-Israelis. She noted that the turnout included voters who typically boycott elections due to doubts about their influence. The Knesset has passed more than 100 laws that discriminate against Palestinian citizens, who also face disparities in state funding.