Exit polls show Arab parties set for 18 Knesset seats as turnout breaks records

Voter turnout among Palestinian citizens of Israel hit approximately 80 percent during Tuesday's parliamentary election, according to Israel's Channel 12. This figure breaks the previous record set in 1999 and represents the highest participation level in decades for this demographic. Overall national turnout also reached a historic high, with the Central Elections Committee reporting that 77.7 percent of all eligible voters cast ballots.

Exit polls project that Arab-led parties will win 18 seats in the 120-member Knesset. The two main blocs in the race appear to be in a statistical dead heat. The opposition bloc, led by Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar party, and the governing bloc, led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud party, are both tied at 51 seats each based on updated polling data.

Mansour Abbas, leader of the Ra'am party, told Channel 12 that he hopes the final results will allow the anti-Netanyahu coalition to reach the 61 seats necessary to form a government. Abbas noted that his party, which currently holds five seats, has been contacted by both major blocs to negotiate. "With the numbers we have now, there is no government," Abbas said.

Alon Pinkas, a former Israeli ambassador, spoke to Al Jazeera about the challenges of forming a government. He stated that Eisenkot's bloc may struggle because it campaigned on a promise not to enter coalitions with Arab parties. Pinkas argued that "Arabs can't be kept outside and only being considered and co-opted when you need their votes." He warned that Arab-led lists will likely make demands that a Jewish-led coalition may resist.

Netanyahu's coalition made final efforts on Tuesday to mobilize its base by emphasizing the high Arab turnout. Witnesses described cars flying Likud flags driving through Jerusalem while playing the Islamic call to prayer. Netanyahu posted images of long lines in Arab communities on social media, warning that inaction could lead to a government led by Mansour Abbas and Ahmad Tibi.

Palestinian citizens of Israel make up about 21 percent of the country's 10 million population. Nour Odeh, reporting from Ramallah, described the election as an existential moment. She noted that the record turnout included voters who typically boycott elections, driven by a desire to influence the systemic discrimination they face. The Knesset has passed more than 100 laws affecting this community, according to Odeh.