Netanyahu and Eisenkot fail to reach 61-seat majority in Knesset

Israel’s political gridlock deepened on Friday when the Central Elections Committee released final data from the October 27 general election. Neither Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s bloc nor the opposition group led by Gadi Eisenkot secured the 61 seats required in the 120-member Knesset to form a government. With no clear winner, the country faces a difficult path toward coalition building.

Netanyahu’s camp won 53 seats, while Eisenkot’s bloc captured 48. The two main lists representing Palestinian citizens of Israel, the United Arab List and the Joint List, took a combined 19 seats. Voter turnout reached 77.9 percent, a high figure for the nation. Officials counted at least 500,000 special ballots from soldiers and diplomats on Thursday, ensuring all votes were tallied before the final announcement.

Both Netanyahu and Eisenkot have excluded the two Arab-led parties from their initial coalition calculations. Netanyahu, who leads the Likud party, stated on X that it was "forbidden to form a government with them." His party accused the Arab-led lists of "stealing" the election after his coalition lost its previous majority. Eisenkot has set conditions for partners, including recognition of Israel as a Jewish and democratic state and a commitment to national service, though he has not yet said if the Arab parties meet those standards.

Political consultations are currently underway to determine if a governing alliance can be formed. If these efforts fail, President Isaac Herzog will select a candidate he believes has the best chance of succeeding. That candidate will have approximately 28 days to assemble a government, a period that can be extended. If the first candidate fails, the president may name another. A further 21-day window exists where 61 Knesset members can petition Herzog to assign the task to a different member. If all these steps fail, Israelis will return to the polls for a second election.

Analysts see several potential paths to break the deadlock. Roi Zur, a lecturer at Essex University, noted that the numbers do not currently favor either side. He mentioned rumors that Eisenkot might seek support from Arab parties for an investiture vote in exchange for financial investment in their communities. However, Zur considered this unlikely due to objections from hard-right figures like Avigdor Lieberman, who declared that he would partner with "neither Bibi nor Tibi," referring to Netanyahu and Ahmad Tibi of the Joint List.

Nimrod Flaschenberg, a Berlin-based political analyst, outlined three options for the Arab parties. They could join the government directly, as the United Arab List desires, or serve as coalition members without cabinet seats, a model used in the 2021 to 2022 government. Alternatively, they could support the government from outside the coalition to prevent its collapse. Most predictions suggest that a future government would include the United Arab List in the coalition while relying on the Joint List from the outside.

Yousef Jabareen of the Joint List expressed readiness to help oust what he called a government of "bloodshed." He wrote on X that the change comes through a "true and equal partnership" between Jewish and Arab citizens. Meanwhile, Yossi Mekelberg of Chatham House suggested Netanyahu could attempt to persuade Eisenkot’s allies to join his camp while delegitimizing the Arab parties. Flaschenberg argued that Netanyahu is likely pushing for a second election, believing his bloc could reach the necessary 61 seats in a subsequent vote if opposition morale wanes.

The next phase of the process involves these intensive coalition negotiations. President Herzog awaits the outcome of these talks before exercising his constitutional mandate to assign the task of government formation to a specific candidate. The current configuration of the Knesset leaves no single bloc with automatic control, making every seat critical in the coming weeks.