Trump Disapproval Hits 61% as Democrats Hold 8-Point Lead in Midterm Poll

61% of registered voters disapprove of the job President Donald Trump is doing, according to a new NPR/PBS News/Marist poll conducted October 19 and 20. This figure represents a 23-point gap over approval ratings and ties last month’s result as the highest disapproval level in the survey’s history. The margin of error for registered voters is plus or minus 3.7 percentage points.

Among likely voters, disapproval stands at 59%, compared to 40% approval. A 53% share of both registered and likely voters said they strongly disapprove of the president’s performance. Trump’s overall favorability is even lower, with 59% of likely voters holding a negative impression and only 37% a favorable one.

On the generic congressional ballot, Democrats maintain an 8-point lead among likely voters and a 10-point lead among registered voters. Historical data suggests that when Democrats hold similar advantages, they often gain at least 30 House seats, as they did in 2018 and 2006. However, recent redistricting efforts in Republican-led states have created structural advantages for the GOP that could limit Democratic gains despite current polling numbers.

Economic concerns drive voter sentiment, with 4 in 10 respondents stating their personal finances have worsened in the past year. Shun Maurice, a 47-year-old independent from Arizona, cited high food and gas prices as the primary strain on his household. "They're too expensive for everybody, no matter who you voted for," Maurice said. Another 38% reported their finances had gotten worse, while 44% said they stayed about the same.

Enthusiasm levels show a clear partisan divide. Democratic likely voters are 10 points more likely than their Republican counterparts to describe themselves as very enthusiastic about voting, with 71% in the affirmative compared to 61%. However, enthusiasm is lower among key Democratic demographic groups. Only 42% of likely voters under 45 and 53% of non-white voters report being very enthusiastic. By contrast, 68% of MAGA voters and 66% of white women without college degrees express high enthusiasm.

Voters are also weighing change against continuity. 55% of likely voters said it is more important to elect candidates with new ideas. 44% of likely voters said their vote would be against Trump, while 21% said it would be for him. Chris Agan, a 43-year-old Democrat in Tyler, Texas, said he is supporting James Talarico in the Senate race. "This year, it feels like every opportunity to vote is a referendum against the party in power," Agan said.

Confidence in the election process remains high overall, with 75% of likely voters stating they are confident their state and local governments will run a fair and accurate election. However, a 20-point gap exists between parties. 88% of Democrats expressed confidence, compared to 68% of Republicans. Among Republicans, a quarter said their preferred candidate should probably or definitely challenge the results if they lose, a sentiment less common among Democrats and independents.