Senate Control Hinges on Seven Tight Races as Counting Begins

Polls began closing across the United States on Tuesday evening, initiating a counting process that may extend for days or even weeks. While the outcome of the House of Representatives is likely to become clear sooner due to wider margins, control of the Senate remains uncertain. Seven states are considered especially competitive in the Senate, and two additional states use ranked choice voting, a method that can prolong the tallying period. A single seat could determine which party holds the majority in the Senate, whereas the House outcome is unlikely to depend on a single margin.

The first results arrived at 7 p.m. ET as polls closed in Georgia, Indiana, Kentucky, South Carolina, Virginia, and Vermont. In Georgia, Democratic Senator Jon Ossoff is projected to defeat Republican Representative Mike Collins. The state’s gubernatorial race is tighter, pitting billionaire businessman Rick Jackson against former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms. Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger told local news outlets that new laws require counties to report results within an hour of polls closing.

South Carolina also reported results at 7 p.m. ET. The Senate race between Senator Darline Graham, who assumed the seat after the death of her brother Lindsey Graham, and Democratic nominee Annie Andrews is described by many national polls as a toss-up. The Cook Political Report indicates a Republican advantage in the heavily Republican state.

At 7:30 p.m. ET, polls closed in North Carolina, Ohio, and West Virginia. North Carolina’s Senate contest between former Governor Roy Cooper and former Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Whatley is viewed as the most likely flip for Democrats. If Democrats lose this seat, the path to a majority becomes less likely. In Ohio, Republican Senator Jon Husted and former Senator Sherrod Brown are deadlocked in a race that has attracted attention due to the state’s recent shift toward solidly Republican voting patterns.

The Ohio gubernatorial race features Democrat Amy Acton, the former state health director, against Republican Vivek Ramaswamy. Ramaswamy recently aired an attack ad featuring Acton’s estranged mother, a move that has generated backlash. This controversy may affect both Ramaswamy and Husted, according to observers.

By 8 p.m. ET, polls had closed in more than half the country, including Florida, Maine, and Pennsylvania. In Florida, incumbent Senator Ashley Moody is poised to win over Democratic state Representative Angie Nixon. The state’s governor’s race favors Republican Representative Byron Donalds, though he holds only a slight poll advantage. Florida’s competitive House races will serve as the first test of its newly redrewn congressional maps.

In Pennsylvania, four House races are competitive, with three toss-ups now leaning toward Democrats. In Maine, incumbent Republican Senator Susan Collins faces a tough challenge from Democratic nominee Troy Jackson. This is the only state where a Republican holds a Senate seat in a state won by Kamala Harris in 2024.

At 9 p.m. ET, polls closed in major states including Arizona, Michigan, and Texas. In Texas, Democratic nominee James Talarico faces Republican nominee Ken Paxton. Talarico may take an early lead as mail-in ballots are counted, while Paxton is expected to gain ground as county totals are reported. In Michigan, the race between Democrat Abdul El-Sayed and Republican Mike Rogers remains a toss-up, with the outcome potentially signaling a victory for the progressive wing if El-Sayed wins.

Iowa’s open Senate race between Republican Representative Ashley Hinson and Democratic state Representative Josh Turek is close, adding pressure to Republican efforts in a state where three of four congressional seats are competitive. Democrats have their strongest chance for a pickup in Iowa’s governor’s race, where state auditor Rob Sand is favored after running a campaign that deemphasized partisan politics.

Polls closed in Montana, Nevada, and Utah at 10 p.m. ET. In Nevada, the governor’s race between Republican Joe Lombardo and Democrat Aaron Ford is considered a toss-up. The state has been hit hard by economic conditions, influencing the contest. In Montana, an independent candidate, Seth Bodnar, may have a chance to win the Senate race against a Republican incumbent and a Democrat, though Republicans remain favored.