Midterm Spending: $11.2 Billion War Chest

The total amount spent on advertisements and reservations for the 2026 midterm elections reached $11.21 billion as of October 26. This figure, provided by the advertising firm AdImpact, dwarfs the $3.2 billion spent during the 2024 presidential election season. The surge in capital indicates a fierce battle over control of the United States Congress.

Republican President Donald Trump faces a referendum on his performance during the halfway mark of his second term. Maintaining a Republican majority in both chambers is essential for his legislative agenda in the final two years of his presidency. However, national control may depend on a small number of closely contested Senate and House races across the country.

The Texas Senate race is projected to set a new spending record for that chamber. Democrat James Talarico is challenging Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton in a state where Democrats have not won a statewide office since 1994. Nearly 4.5 million Texans cast ballots during the first week of early voting alone, according to the state secretary of state’s office. Candidates and outside groups have spent more than $534 million on this single contest.

Talarico has raised $146 million, while Paxton has raised roughly $22 million. However, outside spending heavily favors the Republican candidate. Nearly $300 million has been spent on Paxton’s behalf, compared to about $80 million for Talarico. The super PAC MAGA Inc, aligned with Trump, contributed $37 million toward Paxton’s campaign. A late October CNN projection showed Talarico with 49 percent support against Paxton’s 43 percent.

Ohio and Michigan also rank among the most expensive Senate races. In Ohio, more than $435 million has been spent in the contest between Democrat Sherrod Brown and Republican Jon Husted. Husted has received roughly $248 million in spending, while Brown has received $187 million. A Marist Poll released on October 20 showed Brown leading by four points, though other surveys indicate the race is virtually tied.

In Michigan, an estimated $333 million has been spent in the race between Republican Mike Rogers and Democrat Abdul El-Sayed. El-Sayed has raised approximately $54 million, outpacing Rogers’ $23 million. Outside groups have spent about $169 million supporting Rogers and roughly $94 million supporting El-Sayed. A late October Michigan State University poll places El-Sayed ahead 48 percent to 45.5 percent.

Federal Election Commission filings show that Republicans have raised more than Democrats since the start of 2025. The Democratic National Committee spent about $252.8 million against its $252.3 million intake. The Republican National Committee received about $341 million and paid out roughly $303 million as of October 14. An analysis by Politico found that Republicans rely more heavily on large donors as their small-dollar base shrinks.

Elon Musk is the dominant figure in donor contributions, giving $446 million to right-wing causes. His donation is nearly equal to the combined contributions of the next six largest donors on both sides of the aisle. More than $150 million of his total went to support Paxton in Texas. Elizabeth and Richard Uihlein donated about $150 million, while Jeff and Janice Yass contributed $110 million.

On the Democratic side, George Soros provided about $102 million. Michael Bloomberg pledged $84.2 million, with an additional $36 million added on Friday. Reid and Michelle Yee Hoffman gave about $41.2 million. One Nation, a nonprofit founded by allies of former Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, has spent $133 million. The American Action Network has spent $64.3 million, and the American Prosperity Alliance has spent about $51 million.

Democratic spending is led by Majority Forward at $102 million, followed by House Majority Forward at about $93.7 million. The Economic Opportunity Fund has spent $41.5 million. Polls suggest Democrats are likely to take back the House and are favored to control the Senate, creating a stark contrast between the fundraising advantage held by Republicans and the projected electoral outcomes.