Michigan Senate Race Hinges on Late Endorsement From Rep. Haley Stevens

Roughly half of all available Michigan voters cast ballots before Election Day 2026, according to data cited by Republican attorney general nominee Doug Lloyd. That number sets the stage for a final push in the state's competitive Senate race, where turnout among specific demographic groups is the deciding factor.

The campaign trail in Oakland County shifted sharply on Monday morning. Democratic Representative Haley Stevens endorsed Republican Senate candidate Mike Rogers over her primary rival, Abdul El-Sayed. Stevens made the announcement just hours before a press event hosted by the Michigan Republican Party. The party invited community leaders to discuss how the switch might influence voters who typically lean Democratic.

The endorsement follows a period of polling that showed El-Sayed struggling to maintain traditional support. Between August and September, his approval among African American voters stayed near 75 percent. That figure remained well below the benchmark usually associated with strong Democratic showing among that group. The Arab American community in the Detroit metro area has also historically clashed with African American groups on several policy issues, a dynamic that has surfaced during El-Sayed's campaign.

At the Monday morning briefing, six community leaders representing African American and Jewish backgrounds spoke to reporters. They argued that El-Sayed had not sufficiently distanced himself from radical associations. The group claimed to see growing support for the Republican ticket among their peers. Close to two dozen other attendees, many of whom were Black or Jewish, joined the event.

Michelle Nard, a former Democrat running for state Senate, said Stevens' move would make a big difference. Nard noted that Stevens maintained a large following and that her endorsement could sway last-minute voters. She cited a conversation with a Black woman who emphasized the community's tradition of voting on Election Day. Marcus Bowman, a metro Detroit school board trustee, said true supporters of Stevens would respect her decision. He attributed the shift to concerns about statements made by El-Sayed during the primary.

Aaron Tobin, a conservative Jewish community leader, described the endorsement as a permission slip for left-wing Democrats to vote for Rogers. He said many Jews in the area have felt abandoned by the Democratic Party. Tobin pointed to a terrorist attack on a West Bloomfield synagogue on March 12 as a starting point for community fear. He argued that El-Sayed had not alleviated those fears, leading some to view Rogers as a safer choice for their families.

The campaign held its final rally on Monday night. Rogers invited six Black and Jewish voters, most of them former Democrats, to the stage. They explained why they considered El-Sayed too extreme for their support. Rogers praised the group and thanked Stevens for her endorsement. Conservative attendees cheered whenever Stevens' name was mentioned. Adam Piper, executive director of the Republican Attorneys General Association, said the momentum in Michigan is real and stronger now than before the endorsement.

Democrats responded by arguing the endorsement would energize their base. Michigan Democratic Party Chair Curtis Hertel expected the episode to galvanize Democrats. El-Sayed's campaign reported raising $2.4 million on Sunday, its largest fundraising day of the campaign. The party suggested that the late switch might strengthen rather than weaken El-Sayed's support. Fox News rates the Michigan Senate race as a toss-up, meaning neither party holds a clear edge as voters head to the polls.

Lloyd said the race is not over until 8 o'clock tomorrow night. He noted that 50 percent of available voters have already voted through absentee and early voting. He expressed optimism that Stevens' endorsement could influence voters who had been on the sidelines. The candidate said he saw homemade yard signs near Detroit and Grosse Pointe that read African Americans and Jews stand together.

The final vote count will determine whether the Republican ticket can win over enough voters who typically do not align with the GOP. The race remains close enough that the shift in support among Black and Jewish voters could be decisive. Arab voters, who swung toward Republicans in 2024, strongly favor El-Sayed and could offset gains among other groups.